| Symbol | Quantity | In | Out | DIM | P\L (%) |
| AAON | 100 | 26.88 | $27.28 | 1 | 1.5% |
| TMO | 50 | 43.97 | $44.63 | 1 | 1.5% |
| IGT | 50 | 41.39 | $42.01 | 1 | 1.5% |
| MVSN | 100 | 27.39 | $27.66 | 1 | 1.0% |
| WYE | 50 | 49.24 | $49.80 | 1 | 1.1% |
| PLD | 50 | 64.51 | $65.12 | 10 | 0.9% |
| GILD | 50 | 66.28 | $67.27 | 1 | 1.5% |
| TJX | 100 | 27.8 | $28.15 | 3 | 1.3% |
| ASN | 50 | 59.58 | $60.50 | 32 | 1.5% |
| WEBX | 50 | 36.85 | $37.59 | 46 | 2.0% |
| KR | 100 | 24.97 | $25.31 | 2 | 1.4% |
| RKT | 100 | 32.32 | $32.80 | 1 | 1.5% |
| EMC | 150 | 14.48 | $15.16 | 68 | 4.7% |
| PFWD | 200 | 14.64 | $14.86 | 77 | 1.5% |
| LNET | 100 | 36.41 | $37.05 | 1 | 1.8% |
| AYE | 50 | 54.29 | $55.11 | 3 | 1.5% |
| NDAQ | 50 | 33.62 | $34.31 | 31 | 2.1% |
| SWIR | 100 | 22.6 | $23.05 | 1 | 2.0% |
| TRA | 100 | 24.27 | $24.76 | 7 | 2.0% |
| NM | 200 | 12.52 | $12.90 | 1 | 3.0% |
| BJ | 70 | 38.47 | $39.00 | 1 | 1.4% |
| ORB | 200 | 22.65 | $23.75 | 2 | 4.9% |
| O | 100 | 28.41 | $28.70 | 138 | 1.0% |
| DSX | 100 | 25.66 | $26.17 | 1 | 2.0% |
| EMC | 150 | 19.72 | $20.25 | 1 | 2.7% |
| FLWS | 300 | 12.1 | $12.34 | 1 | 2.0% |
| MOGN | 200 | 26.49 | $26.94 | 70 | 1.7% |
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Trades to date
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
5 comments:
I did a google search for Paytrading and I found your blog. i'd like to know weather or not you still use this system. I'm thinking about starting it. I have an account with Zecco, which gives you 10 free trades per month, and I think this would make a big difference. Why don't you contact me at david.s@att.net. i'm basically wondering weather or not PT still works.
Hi Mike, Are you still using Paytrading?
Cheers,
John
Hi,
I am really interested to use PayTrading. I am interested to know how the system fared during the 2008-2009 downturn.
Your inputs in this regard would be very helpful. Please let us know.
Regards.
Anonymous, You could always pay the $5.99 for one month and check how the system fared yourself. At least back in 2005 you had access to all the historical picks.
Hi Mike,
I got my fingers on Shawns' paytrading book 2 days ago, read it and immediately had some thoughts what could be done with his idea to set up a more sound approach. There is no way that I would risk 100% of my account to make 1% on a trade, that's really a crazy thought => conclusion, there must be a risk stop! The second thing I would not want to get stuck in a single trade for months => so there must be a time stop as well! The good thing about Shawn's idea is his high success rate (he claims "no losses" ... until it happens ;) And this success rate is what I would like to take advantage of - but with risk control.
1) I made some rough assumptions about a likely stop-out rate (time stop and risk stop) and estimated the success rate to 40 winners /12 losers (out of 52 weeks = 1 year). This estimate need to be much refined based on the spreadsheets I found in the earlier discussion at http://www.illiteratewithdrawal.com/old-pages/paytrading/. Important is to extract a time curve of how 1%-winners we get after a certain time (e.g. 60% after the first day, 70% after 3 days, 80% after 7 days, 90% after 2 weeks and 99% after 2 months ... or so). This is important for stock option trading described below.
2) I also assumed that I would do five trades in parallel with 1/5 of the account size instead of one single trade using the full account. So if one or the other trade gets stuck (until a time stop hits, e.g. after 1 month), I am still in the faster-profits game with most other trades.
3)Stock options are great tools that can be used to limit risk and to push returns. However, I have not clue how many of those stocks on the paytrade lists have options? Any ideas? I have my favorite option strategy that works perfectly for any system with a high success rate, playing a simple "risk 1/make 1" game. Volatility, time decay and other option-typical worries do not play a role in this technique. With the technique you can adjust your risk per trade to, e.g. to 5% of your portfolio, but you then also have a 5% profit target (on a 1% move of the stock). So instead of risking 100% of your portfolio to make 1% per trade (Shawn's idea) you risk only 5% of your portfolio to make 5% per trade ... sounds like a better deal to me.
Based on the above, I run some calculations assuming that 5 trades could be done per week (trading them in parallel as described before) or 260 per year (if you have experience please provide me with some ideas if this is realistic - thanks). I started with a $10000 account, assumed $500 risk/trade (5% of the portfolio) and came up with a return-on-capital of +100%/year using the above success rate of 40 winners /12 losers (or the equal ratio 200/60). For a better success rate of 220 winners /40 losers the return-on-capital increased to +240%/year. Sounds too good to be true ... for me YES ... but I still haven't found any convincing arguments why it shouldn't work. I will further investigate this, but I would appreciate if some of you experienced paytrading folks could support me in my efforts. Thanks!
Hope we can revive this blog and maybe even make some money ;)
Cheers,
spjuliman
Post a Comment